Sunday, November 11, 2018

What’s the true ROI of owning a flat? (What-Ifs)

In my previous post, I had documented the true ROI I had received from owning and eventually selling it and going through the lifecycle of the investment.

For obvious reasons, the ROI there isn't stellar. It was just at the borderline of the inflation rate over the years, which means it just about preserved my capital, but did not generate any. Incidentally, I wouldn't have needed to pay any capital gains, because the gains didn't even keep pace with the indexation benefits over the years.

Surely there must be unique factors specific to my investment that could be dragging down ROI? Is it then possible that under different circumstances, the ROI would have been significantly higher?

This is quite possible. Property investments almost always have a unique story and it is very tough to generalize what happens on the average case. However, what is possible is to tweak my particular experience to see if there is a significantly different outcome.

I have run 4 simulations on the data to see what might have happened. So I present the results. Following the trend of sharing my raw data, you can find the raw data of the simulations here.

Higher Rents

I have seen other property owners often spend a bit more money in furnishing the apartment significantly better than what I did. Most do this because they like to live a better furnished house themselves, but many do because it is expected to increase rental yields. In my first simulation, I assume that I spend ₹ 3,00,000 initially (instead of the ₹ 1,30,000 I actually did), but assumed that both the notional rents and the actual rents go up by 50%.

src: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/realestate/for-sale-multimillion-dollar-homes-fully-furnished.html
This is actually an optimistic scenario. My original investment got me a barely furnished apartment and my wife and I penny pinched along way to even get the furnishings done in this budget. It is unlikely that ₹ 3,00,000 would have made the apartment significantly better to gain a 50% higher rent uniformly across the life cycle. But assuming such optimistic scenarios, we arrive at a yield of 9.16%, a clear 1% gain in XIRR rate. Nothing to scoff at.

100% Occupancy

In my experience, the apartment was either occupied by my family or rented out, only for about 77% of the time. If you live in the apartment all along, you retain 100% occupancy. It is possible to have a single tenant occupy your apartment throughout your ownership giving you 100% occupancy. The latter is a highly optimistic scenario, but possible. Remember, we are doing what-ifs here.

src: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeonhole_principle


Take the base data and applying 100% occupancy gets return to 9.31%. This is an 1.15% top up on the current XIRR. Again, nothing to scoff at.

Higher Sale Price

The third possibility is that I sold it when the market isn't a sellers market. What if the sale price was significantly higher than the current sale price. Among the what-if scenarios, this is the most likely one to have panned out for most other property owners. An astute seller will wait till the buying price is right.

In my case I had the apartment on sale for a little over a year., which is a fairly long time to wait for the right price. Despite that it is possible it didn't fetch the right price. So, I ran a simulation that sets the sale price at ₹ 50,00,000 (instead of the real-life ₹ 39,50,000). With this the XIRR jumped a long way to 10.53%. This is a significant jump over the original XIRR.

No Bank Loan

The final simulation I wanted to run was to check what would happen if I hadn't taken a loan out. What if I had the money to put into buying the apartment and avoided the interest and fees that I paid to the bank over the years? Turns out, that this simulation has an effect of increasing the XIRR to 9.5%.
src: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2017/04/11/planning-to-borrow-from-your-401k-for-that-home-down-payment-it-may-not-be-as-easy-as-you-think/

Comparison to Stock Market

Finally, what would have happened if I had taken all my cash outlays in the apartment and invested it in a mutual fund, and used the same fund to withdraw cash for the rents that would have supplanted the notional rent and rent inflows I enjoyed? This simulation gets a lot more interesting.

For the purpose of this simulation, I selected Franklin India Taxshield - it is a somewhat conservative fund, meant to be used for Sec 80C tax benefits, originally with a 3 year lock in on investments. The fund is probably a good selection because it would offered very similar tax benefits as a flat purchase in India.

This brings about the XIRR to a whopping 13.91%, a massive 6% on top of the original XIRR. The extra 6% increases the final outflow to ₹ 69,37,000 (instead of the real-life ₹ 39,50,000), giving a 75% upside over the market.

Remember that in this scenario, you would also never be in debt, as you haven't raised a loan. You are just replacing your payments to the bank with investments into the fund.

Summary

Here is a summary of the various simulations I ran


Actual Transactions8.16%
SimulationHigher Rents9.16%
Simulation100% Occupancy Rate9.31%
SimulationHigher Sale Price10.53%
SimulationNo Bank Loan9.50%
SimulationFIT (Stock Market) Comparison13.91%

As before, all data is here. Feel free to perform your own simulations. Leave a note if you find anything interesting.



Thursday, November 08, 2018

What’s the true ROI of owning a flat? (The facts)


Anyone who offers you investment advice, specially in India, will tell you that buying a property is (almost always) a good investment. They will compare projections and stories from generalized price trends to explain why this is a good investment. What very few will give you is a numbers based analysis of what owning a property means from beginning to end. This post attempts to do that.

src: https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/51/590x/House-prices-840997.jpg

Recently, I sold off the flat that happened to be my first investment, way back in 2005. This brought me to the logical conclusion of having owned it through its lifecycle providing me a better perspective of what return on investment (ROI) home ownership offers.

Let’s get into the facts. The property was a 3 bedroom flat in a complex of 20 flats in Devara Chikana Halli, Bangalore. I bought this straight from the developer, and I was the first owner. I made some very initial customization work before moving in, and for most part kept the house intact for the 13 years (there were 1-2 paint jobs and one round of general maintenance work we did). Then I sold it this year for a lump sum amount.

Details of the property

  • 960 square feet carpet area
  • 1190 super built up area
  • 3 bedrooms
  • 1 living room
  • 1 dining area
  • 1 kitchen
  • 1 common bathroom/toilet
  • 1 attached bathroom/toilet
  • 1 balcony 
  • 1 service area (attached to kitchen, doubling up as a second balcony)
  • 3rd floor
  • Dedicated parking was included

Purchase


Year2005
Rate₹ 1,170 per sqft
Cost₹ 17,44,000
(including registration, parking etc)
Initial custom work
& wood work
~ ₹ 1,00,000 - ₹ 1,56,000
Total cost~ ₹ 19,00,000

Including the interest on the home loan I took out, I paid an effective amount of ₹ 25,46,372. The difference between ₹ 25,46,372 and ₹ 19,00,000 was due to fee and interests paid through the life time of the loan to the bank. I closed the loan in 2012, but I had made interim prepayments to the bank between 2007-2012. There was no penalty/charges I paid in prepayment as I had negotiated such with the bank. This increased the cost of acquiring the property by roughly 34%.

Ownership and occupancy

I sold the property in September 2018, giving the family a total of 153 months of ownership. In this, we used the property as an active residence for 92 months. After this there were 26 months of tenancy to tenants who paid rent. The remaining 25 months, there was no occupant. The vacant periods were because we couldn’t find a tenant soon enough. This gave the property an occupancy rate of 77.12%.

During these 153 months of ownership, I contributed to the maintenance of the building, varying between 800 per month in the beginning to 2500 at the end. In addition to regular maintenance, the owners also chipped on a couple of occasions for special projects like the Kaveri water pipeline and the replacement of motor and a lift. I also paid 12 rounds of property taxes varying between 1600 per year to 4372 per year.

Returns

We have spoken so far about the costs, what about returns? Since I am a very data driven person, I have been maintaining a spreadsheet of all my outflows and inflows into this investment over the past 13 years. This includes everything I mentioned above, plus the rents I received.

I also maintained a “notional rent” as an inflow in my books for the months the family occupied the flat. This is the money we would have otherwise spent on having a place to live elsewhere. After all, this was our primary place of residence. The notional rent was always very competitively maintained - i.e. by enquiring at what rents did our neighboring flats in the building get rented out for. This was to ensure I kept a realistic set of books.

Eventually, when I sold the property this year, I got ₹ 39,50,000. This amount was quite realistic as the properties around us got sold for very similar (or actually lower than our price point) prices. We did not use a real estate agent and hence I am not deducting anything from the sale price.

(Before I get into the next section, I have to admit that the flat was much more than just an investment - my wife and I started our married life there; my parents lived in a house that they didn’t pay rent for, for the first time in their lives; my wife and I brought our first born to that home, and interspersed between these moments were many many great moments, like witnessing India lifting the 2007 World T20 with our friends in the living room of this apartment. That said, the purpose of this blog post is to look at the property from an investment perspective alone. This objectivity perhaps leaves out the intangibles of owning an apartment, but I am going to leave the reader to make their own assessments on what those are, since no two people can ever agree on intangible benefits.)

src: https://mountainshapers.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/sai41.jpg

So, now that we have all the inflows and all the outflows, what is the best way to calculate the return of investment on this property?

I use XIRR mechanism. In finance, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is used a mechanism for comparing the value of one project to another, despite the variations in frequency of regular cashflows and terminal (beginning or ending) cashflow. XIRR is a variation of this formula, where the frequency can itself vary and so can the terminal cashflow (i.e. you could have multiple inflows and multiple outflows). The XIRR formula would take dates and cashflows and convert it into a rate of return. You can do this easily in Excel or Google Sheets.

src: https://www.goskills.com/Blobs/Modules/783/V-838/thumbnail.png

(Imagine that I had an invisible banker who said she will give me compound rate of return for any balance I maintain on any day with her bank, for whatever period I keep the money with them, what rate would such she have to offer to you to make her bank account equal to the property investment I made. This is why XIRR allows me to calculate.)

The XIRR for this investment happened to be 8.10%

Primary data is here, in case you want to scrutinize it yourself.

For the purpose of this calculation, I have ignored tax aspects of the entire investment. The tax effect is both ways - while you save on taxes by ownership (the interest becomes deductible), you also pay on actual rents received from tenants. It is possible that in my case the net effect of taxes is a net positive, but at the moment, I don't have the granular data to be able to make this calculation. I will take it as homework to update the numbers, but I can be sure that the net effect won't be much more than 0.42% in the best case, since I couldn't have saved more than 1,50,000 in taxes over the 4 years I paid interest before i became an NRI and stopped getting the tax savings.

(Yes, there is a good chance I could have got 8.1% by just depositing my money in fixed deposits over the time and paid rent to live in a flat.
Yes, 8% is roughly half what the stock market offers in India, where I have passive equity funds returning close to 14% over the same 13 year period.
Yes, 8% barely crosses the inflation rate that Government has been publishing through those years, and is probably lesser than the real inflation we faced in the marketplace.)

I have written about what-ifs - i.e could this experience have been better off or worse, by running through a few scenarios in a separate post.

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