Thursday, April 05, 2012

Singapore Immigration Policy: In need of desperate reform

I have stayed away from commenting too much on Singapore policies, Politics and Government so far, but this particular topic is close to my heart, so I am going to pen it down.

The immigration policy in Singapore desperately needs reform.

There, I said it. Now, let me elaborate.

For what I understand, this is the context behind Singapore's Immigration efforts - Birth rate is too low and aging fast. Singapore desperately needs immigrants to maintain the balance. There is a debate over talent based immigration, but the verdict on that is still not out - Singaporeans believe the talent is there and the Govt., along with some foreigners, feel the need to import talent. Together with these reasons, Singapore went on an immigration promotion spree and it brought in PRs by truckloads in the few years leading up to 2009. Then, the issue got a lot of media attention, the public got angry about crowded trains and the ICA has done an about turn - made it very hard for anybody to get PR now.

(Image reference: http://asiasingapore.blogspot.com/2011/03/best-time-to-apply-for-pr-in-singapore.html)

Now, that's the straightforward context. Here are the specifics of the reforms in need:

Guidance: A country can't have a on-off immigration policy. Immigration has to be a long term commitment - because everybody can then structure accordingly - the population, Government, public agencies and most importantly - the Industry. Right now, Singapore has no transparency on this - it doesn't give a guidance on expected immigration for the next decade. If you don't give a guidance, how will the public agencies build up infrastructure? If you don't want immigration, for whatever reason, then say it, squash the speculation and move on. Foreigners who are not given PRs will chose what to do - some will stay (as most do in Gulf countries, despite having no PR program) and some will move on.

Required Reform: Announce that Singapore will have xxx number of immigrations every year for the next 10 years or something similar.

Transparency: Till 2008, people with family monthly income of $3500 and perhaps a bachelors degree were being PRs. Now, anybody less than $12,500 and a PhD doesn't get a PR. The trouble is that neither the economy nor the talent pool requirements have changed so drastically in the past 4 years. Essentially, the ICA didn't tell the world what their logic for acceptance was yesterday and what it is today and it has clearly changed a lot. What this has resulted in is that well talented, well paid people who came in during 2010- 2012 won't be retained as members of the society, but lower paid, lower talented people who came in 2006-2009 will be. I am not really sure how this helps Singapore.

Required Reforms: Make the selection criteria public and stick with it in the medium term, minor adjustments being the exceptions - Canada, Australia & NZ do this and they haven't done badly for themselves. 


Specificity: You can't have the same immigration policy across all sectors and industries. Talent in the banking and financial sectors is abundant and the willingness of the local population to adopt these industries is high and hence these industries don't need quite as much immigration. On the other hand, there are not even a handful of local graduates in a graduating batch of computer science students from NUS or NTU and I am told that the same is for other Engineering disclipines. How exactly will those industries hire and grow? The MDA/IDA has been aggressive about wanting to establish Singapore as a tech startup hub and that effort will face a lot of inertia (or extensive outsourcing) unless you can fix the talent pool problem. Locals, by and large, don't want their children learning engineering - they prefer "execs" and finance - so where will all those engineers come from?

Required Reform: Set up a list of industries where immigration will be easily allowed and others, where it will be harder. If there is an Industry where locals don't train in, and if it is still strategically important to support and promote, then let the immigrants come in - you got no choice.

As you observe, I have not presented arguments to either increase of decrease immigration numbers, but all I am suggesting is streamlining the policies to benefit the long term good of the society.

In some aspects of policy and governance, like immigration, things are discretionary and opaque, and as Singapore continues on it's path to become a regional leader, it's time the policy makers show some more responsibility in policy and governance.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Lost Decade?

Think about the following:

Three of modern Indian Cricketing greats - all from 1990s. (Photo Courtesy - http://rajeevmist.blogspot.com/2011/04/heroes.html)
  • When you think of current generation Indian Cricket, who are your fans of? Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, Sourav Ganguly, Anil Kumble? Or perhaps Harbhajan Singh, Yuvraj Singh, Virender Sehwag or Zaheer Khan? All of them were introduced into the team before 2001. 
  • Paes & Bhupathi - both from 1990s - still going strong (Photo Courtesy - http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-04-03/top-stories/29377080_1_lukas-dlouhy-mahesh-bhupathi-leander-paes)
  • When you think of Tennis in India, who do you think is currently performing the best? As of today, the few remaining players in the Australian Open draw consists of Laender Paes and Mahesh Bhupathi. Both are from the 90s. The guys who were supposed to succeed them - Rohan Bopanna and the likes - didn't really fire. Sania is perhaps edging on the border of excepting this trend, but again, what she achieved in the past 10 years pales in comparison to what these two achieved in the past 10 years.
  • Still the best in Bollywood - all from the 1990s. (Photo Courtesy - http://www.glamsham.com/movies/scoops/11/mar/02-which-actor-looks-cool-in-moustache-031113.asp)
  • When you think of Bollywood, who do you think is still ruling the roost? The Khans (Shah Rukh, Salman, Aamir and Saif Ali) & perhaps Akshay Kumar & Ajay Devgun every now and then. All of them started in the 90s or before. What happened to the next lot? AB Junior, Roshan Junior, Oberoi Junior etc?
  • Which present day Indian companies do you consider great? Infy? Wipro? TCS? Airtel? All of them were household names ten years back, though each of them were less than 10 years old. Which younger-than-10 year old Indian company commands the same respect? How many such companies exist?
Try to ponder over this across more aspects - politics, Gurus, brands and so on. You will probably see the trend in other places as well. The more I think of it, the more I feel that somehow, India just stopped producing talent, in general, for a few years. It's not a fool proof theory, but just a general trend I see. I would love to see an argument proving otherwise, but for now - I feel that we somehow managed to lose a decade of talent creation. I don't know why it happened, but it seemed to have. Any thoughts?

And on that note, wishing all Indians a very happy Republic Day. The constitution has served us well, and I hope it continues to do so in the years to come. 

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Political Majority vs Political Minority

One of the alarming pieces of communication heard in social media/conversations these days w.r.t to political debate in India is about how the "middle class" or "urban" voters will get woken up by the activism of Anna Hazare or the ensuing debate on Lokpal. Every time I participate in a debate, I get the response - "Did you vote?" or an appropriate corollary as may be deemed fit.

So, I have been thinking about this long and hard. After all, it seems a valid question and a valid response is a prerequisite to further debate. For the record, I have voted every single time I was eligible and present in the jurisdiction of my voting eligibility. Unfortunately, due to the fact that I wasn't present at my normal residences during both the 2004 & 2009 general elections (first time due to studies and second time due to occupation), I actually have a poor record at voting.

Having cleared my record, let me take this further. The key issue about my voting and its effects on the politics of India lies somewhere else. Having born in a middle class, high caste Hindu, and brought up in urban upbringings all my life, I am in no way a minority in the traditional sense of the word. Yet, for the purpose of politics, I am clearly a minority. For the purposes of winning an election in India, the demographic of an influential voter constitutes a lower-middle/lower class, lower caste, rural non-Hindu (Non-Hindus, in general, are known to vote en masse.)

The statistics are easy: Over half of our population live in villages, over half of our population is lower caste and over half of our population is essentially what I term lower middle class or lower. Further, almost every constituency has the same structure. Lower class will out vote, higher class voters in most constituencies in urban India too. And of course, as a whole, the lower caste, lower class population can and does determine the output of most elections in our country.

Now, the aspirations of Indians in generally convergent - almost all of them want a strong, clean, honest, non-corrupt country where people can work and enjoy their lives with safety and security. But the means to that end is significantly divergent between the political majority and political minority.



The political minority wants a government who can sacrifice day-to-day gains for long term gains, remove subsidies, reward merit, and reward equality for the weak and meek as opposed to populism. The political majority is appeased by quotas, subsidies, populism and short term gains. Nobody can fault them. They are looking for immediate survival and whoever gets them that wins the most votes.

Nobody can question the individual wisdom in their decisions and yet collectively, the political minority will almost always end up voting those who can appease to their demands and not those who can cook up a strong nation. Nobody can blame their individual demands, since the fulfillment of the same is essential to their immediate survival.

The farmer who has to pay for power will be appeased with free power while he is ignorant of the cost of free power to the nation. A hungry man will love his Rs. 2/kg rice, irrespective of whether it is the most nutritious or the best option for the nation. A lower caste auto driver will happily accept a quota, if his son graduating next year can get an admission/job based on that, irrespective of what that quota does to the nation.

To the outsider (or the observant insider), our politics might be mind-numbingly corrupt, illogical and completely chaotic. And yet, if we agree to the above premise, it is reasonably straight forward to understand why our political parties are as they are. Indian politics has to favor the political majority and since the immediate demands of the political majority, unfortunately, is heavily loaded in favor of keeping such people in the political majority, the cycle is vicious.

And I have realized, I am in a political minority.

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

41 books in 2011

2011 saw me reading 41 books, which is down 18% from 2010's tally of 50 books. However, I am glad that I managed to do all this reading, while taking on new hobbies in 2011 (which shall be detailed in a separate post.)

Best authors of 2011:

  • Stieg Larsson: Clearly the best in terms of story, characters, suspense.
  • Rohinton Mistry: Absolutely amazing characters - stunning drama and great attention to detail.
  • Sunil Gavaskar: His books gives a great perspective into the era of India Cricket which was pretty much unknown to people of me, and perhaps to my generation as a whole.
  • John Grisham: Good old Grisham, still fascinates me with his writing. Haven't got bored of him yet.

Monday, November 07, 2011

COL comparions SIN vs BLR

I am going to be posting about Cost of Living (COL) comparisons between Singapore & Bangalore on various things. The background is that I am hearing a lot of mixed reports about Bangalore's cost of living. Some saying it is becoming very costly. Others believe it is still cheap. The idea is to get some numbers.

Day 1:

Ride from Airport to Home: 
In Bangalore: Rs. 726.
Direct Conversion: SGD: 28
PPP Conversion: SGD 72.6 (assuming PPP exchange rate of 10)
In S'pore, ride from Airport to Jurong: SGD 29.00+ (as per gothere.sg)
(reasonable comparison since my house in Blore is at other end of the town) 
Analysis: With a direct conversion itself, it is just about matching, with PPP, Bangalore is quite costly.
Verdict: Bangalore is costly.

Commute from BG Road to Tin Factory By Volvo:
In Bangalore: Rs. 65+  (two legs of Rs. 10 each and one leg of Rs. 45)
Direct Conversion: SGD 1.60
PPP Conversion: SGD 6.5
In S'pore, ride from Sengkang to Jurong: SGD 1.69 (by bus. By Train is 2.02)
(Reasonable Comparison distance wise)
Analysis: With a direct conversion itself, it is just about matching, with PPP, Bangalore is quite costly.
Verdict: Bangalore is costly.

Meetha Pan:
In Bangalore: Rs. 7
Direct Conversion: SGD 0.20
PPP Conversion: SGD 0.70
In Singapore: SGD 1 (There is a guy selling Paans in Little India)
Analysis: Bangalore is cheaper by both PPP & Direct Comparison
Verdict: Bangalore is cheaper.

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